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Bitcoin soared past the $125,000 mark over the weekend, achieving its highest level since mid-August, as uncertainty surrounding the U.S. government shutdown pushed investors toward perceived safe-haven assets. The surge—dubbed by analysts as part of the “debasement trade”—reflects renewed confidence in digital assets amid broader economic instability.
As of early Monday trading in New York, Bitcoin was hovering around $124,000, remaining close to its all-time peak, according to Bloomberg data.
Safe-Haven Surge: Bitcoin and Gold Rise Together
The rally in Bitcoin coincided with a surge in gold prices, which climbed above $3,900 per ounce, setting a new record high. The U.S. government closure, which began on October 1, halted the release of key economic indicators such as nonfarm payroll data, driving investors toward assets viewed as more resilient against monetary instability.
“Decreased weekend liquidity likely amplified Bitcoin’s upward movement,” noted Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Market Analyst at FxPro. He drew parallels to similar trends seen in July and August when Bitcoin prices jumped after testing comparable resistance levels.
Record Inflows Into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs
Investor appetite for Bitcoin-related investment products remains strong. Over $3.2 billion flowed into 12 U.S.-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) last week—marking the second-largest weekly inflow since their 2024 debut.
Notably, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) recorded an all-time high in notional open interest of $49.8 billion on Friday, as per Bloomberg data.
According to David Lawant, Head of Research at FalconX, total open interest on Deribit and IBIT combined is approaching $80 billion, roughly ten times higher than early 2024 levels. “Option market dynamics are now having an unprecedented influence on Bitcoin’s price behavior,” he remarked.
Options Markets Drive Momentum
Options trading data show a clear bullish tilt. Over 60% of open interest in Bitcoin options currently favors call positions, signaling traders’ confidence in further price gains. However, this positioning also increases the potential for liquidation cascades if the rally stalls, warned Rachael Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets.
Traders are eyeing $135,000 as the next resistance level, with $150,000 “within reach if bullish momentum persists,” Lucas added. Yet, she cautioned that heightened leverage could spark volatility in the event of a sharp reversal.
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“Uptober” Lives Up to Its Name
October—often dubbed “Uptober” in crypto circles—has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest month. Over the past decade, the digital currency has delivered average gains of 22.5% during October, based on Bloomberg’s historical data.
Meanwhile, Ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency, remained steady around $4,560, while XRP traded just under $3 as of early Monday.
📈 Market Outlook
Bitcoin’s weekend rally underscores its evolving role as both a risk asset and a safe-haven instrument. While the surge in institutional inflows and options activity highlights investor optimism, the market remains vulnerable to sudden shifts in sentiment—particularly as global economic uncertainty continues to mount.
If momentum persists, analysts say Bitcoin could soon be testing new highs, cementing its position as the defining asset of the “digital gold” era.
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